Top 25 after Week 5

We are two weeks away from the first release of the BCS Standings and a lot of discrepancies between the AP Poll, the USA Today Coaches' Poll, the Harris Poll and my personal rankings, the BCS couldn't come sooner to attempt to solve things about who is better than who in college football (they're so good at that, aren't they?).

While Oklahoma State and Oregon both had bye weeks, the top six teams all won in dominating fashion with LSU, Alabama and Wisconsin being the most impressive. Boise State's defense dominated Nevada allowing only 155 total yards but an off day from the Boise Bus offense cost them style points that will be crucial in the long run with teams like Wisconsin continuing to prove they're better than we think.
October 2, 2011


From last week's rankings, my teams ranked 9-13 all lost...all five of them. That creates a lot of shuffling and moving up and down in the rankings all those some of those losing teams have a right to still be in the top 15 while others proved they're not a top-tier team at this point in the season.

Virginia Tech can't find any consistency on offense with Logan Thomas, Florida lost quarterback John Brantley to injury, Nebraska still has issues on defense despite the loaded amount of talent and Taylor Martinez continues to regress rather than make progress, and Texas A&M has yet another fourth quarter collapse for the second week in the row drawing some concerns of that defense.

As much as everyone loves the flashy offenses and how many points you score every week for the rankings, I put a lot of stock into the defensive play of teams. If you're not a good defensive team, you're not getting ranked higher. Georgia Tech is a defense that really impressed again but I'm still not sold. Michigan is a bad defensive team that has played well lately and the other results around the nation have allowed Michigan to creep up the rankings, but how long will they stay there? Either way, new Defensive Coordinator Greg Mattison is taking that Michigan defense in the right direction.

Clemson's defense was outstanding in flustering Virginia Tech and all of a sudden Clemson is a top 10 team. All the Tigers needed was for the defense to come around and what was a shaky defense and the weak link of the team is starting to gel together and could become a strength. However, I still think Clemson is a year away from competing for the elite spot in the ACC so there has to be somewhere that Clemson falters on this schedule they have remaining. The obvious choice would be at Georgia Tech but don't be surprised if Clemson gets knocked off before then.

And with that...here is my New Top 25 after Week 5.




My College Footbal Top 25
(x) = my ranking for them last week1. LSU (1) - beat Kentucky 35-7; Next: vs. Florida
2. Alabama (2) - beat Florida 38-10; Next: vs. Vanderbilt
3. Oklahoma (3) - beat Ball State 62-6; Next: vs. Texas
4. Wisconsin (5) - beat Nebraska 48-17; Next: vs. Indiana (Oct. 15)
5. Boise State (4) - beat Nevada 30-10; Next: at Fresno State (Friday)
6. Stanford (6) - beat UCLA 45-19; Next: vs. Colorado
7. Oklahoma State (7) - off week; Next: vs. Kansas
8. Oregon (8) - off week; Next: vs. California (Thursday)
9. Arkansas (14) - beat Texas A&M 42-38; Next: vs. Auburn
10. Clemson (16) - beat Virginia Tech 23-3; Next: vs. Boston College
11. Texas (18) - beat Iowa State 37-14; Next: vs. Oklahoma
12. West Virginia (22) - beat Bowling Green 55-10; Next: vs. Connecticut
13. Florida (9) - lost to Alabama; Next: at LSU
14. Michigan (25) - beat Minnesota 58-0; Next: at Northwestern
15. Virginia Tech (12) - lost to Clemson;  Next: vs. Miami
16. Nebraska (11) - lost to Wisconsin; Next: vs. Ohio State
17. Illinois (NR) - beat Northwestern 38-35; Next: at Indiana
18. Texas A&M (13) - lost to Arkansas; Next: at Texas Tech
19. Arizona State (20) - beat Oregon State 35-20; Next: at Utah
20. South Carolina (10) - lost to Auburn; Next: vs. Kentucky
21. Florida State (17) - off week; Next: at Wake Forest
22. Georgia Tech (NR) - beat NC State 45-35; Next: vs. Maryland
23. Auburn (NR) - beat South Carolina 16-13; Next: at Arkansas
24. Kansas State (NR) - beat Baylor 36-35; Next: vs. Missouri
25. Baylor (19) - lost to Kansas State; Next: vs. Iowa State
Dropped: South Florida (15), TCU (21), Michigan State (23), Ohio State (24)
Bubble: Notre Dame, Michigan State, Washington, Cincinnati, Houston, Georgia, Missouri, North Carolina, Pittsburgh



Notes: 
-Big Ten teams, Michigan and Illinois, starting to make some noise.
-Auburn is overachieving after good wins over Mississippi State and South Carolina, still not a Top 20 by any means though.
-Texas has improved every week but hasn't really proved anything. Still think Florida, Virginia Tech, etc. are better than Texas. Texas' next two games against Oklahoma and Oklahoma State will set the tone for the rest of the season.
-South Carolina has a top ten roster, but a bottom five showing on the field almost every week.
-When will Clemson stumble?
A note from last week...go back and see my post, I wrote that Baylor would stumble soon. And the stumble came right away against Kansas State.




Why the Changes?

Clemson into the Top 10
Clemson has to wake up from this dream soon, right? I had Clemson as a fringe Top 25 team to start the season (ranked exactly at No. 28) and I know the Tigers are loaded with potential, but that potential is supposed to be a year away from developing into an ACC Title contender. The process has sped up and Clemson is into the top ten with an impressive resume so far with - not just wins, but convincing wins - over Auburn, Florida State and Virginia Tech.

Texas is BACK...in the top half of the rankings
Is Texas back as a national power? It's hard to tell right now, but the next two games will tell all for the Longhorns. Texas has clearly rebounded from the 5-7 record in 2010 and has improved every week, but Texas hasn't really proved anything on the field. How will the quarterbacks Case McCoy and David Ash fare when the heats gets turned up against bigger opponents? That will be the difference between a Top-10 Texas team and a Top 15-25 Texas team because the defense is there for Texas, the offense has to complete the team.

South Carolina needs a spark
Stephen Garcia has gone back to his 2009 form after a much improved 2010 season. 2009 Stephen Garcia is not going to take the Gamecocks anywhere, but a 2010 Stephen Garcia will. When the opponents stop Marcus Lattimore (which Auburn did) and it all falls on Garcia to make plays, he fails. As long as that's happening, South Carolina can't be among the nation's top-level teams despite the loaded roster.

9-13 all lose
That's the biggest reason for the drastic changes in these rankings like West Virginia and Michigan moving up 10 spots and South Carolina falling. Florida, South Carolina, Nebraska, Virginia Tech and Texas A&M were five teams in a row in the rankings that all lost that caused mass movement in the rankings.



The Newbies
Illinois is back in my Top 25 and this time even higher at No. 17. I had the Illini in at No. 24 two weeks ago before dropping them out last week despite the win. This time, Illinois had an awesome comeback win over Northwestern and these guys play hard and don't quit. At 5-0, it's hard to  deny the Illini right now.
Georgia Tech debuts in my rankings after a 5-0 start to 2011. I'm still very skeptic of them because the offense can be slowed if a team has enough time to prepare and I know Al Groh has worked wonders in improving this defense but it's still the Georgia Tech defense of old. They do give up big plays and that's going to hurt them. Both polls have Georgia Tech ranked at No. 13. I don't think Georgia Tech is a Top 25 team but undefeated at this point in the season with other teams faltering gets them a spot for a week.
Auburn doesn't quit. This team was supposed to go 6-6 or 7-5 at best. Now they could go for 8 or 9 wins. They beat Mississippi State and South Carolina, two games they weren't supposed to win. There's no question the offense still has playmakers without Cam Newton, and they have Gus Malzahn calling the plays, but the Auburn defense grew up fast against South Carolina. Was it just a fluke? They get Arkansas now so Auburn can either surprise again or enjoy a short stay in the rankings.Kansas State? Kansas State? Wait...Kansas State? The Wildcats will get a test as they play Missouri next but what a job Bill Snyder has done this year with Kansas State leading them to wins over Miami and Baylor.


Who's Too High?
This would have to be Texas. The Longhorns are rejuvenated and seeking redemption from 2010 but they haven't proved anything other than that they're not going to go 5-7 in 2011. They have improved each week but haven't shown they're back among the national powers. The next two weeks against Oklahoma and Oklahoma State will bring truth.Clemson might be too high too but they've built a great resume. Texas' best win? BYU.


Who's Too Low?
South Carolina still has a load of a talent. They just need someone to provide a spark to this team. With the tiebreaker over Georgia and Florida still on the schedule, Carolina still controls its own destiny in the SEC East. This team looked like a mess against a decent Auburn team and have convincing wins this year yet you can't deny the talent on the roster.