Friday, November 4, 2011

BCS Standings are out and my New Top 25

The BCS is out! The BCS is out! The BCS still sucks. And I'm sure the authors of "Death to the BCS" waited until this week to release the new revised and updates version of "Death to the BCS" for a reason. The bright side? Oklahoma isn't No. 1. this time...because that was a joke, but 2011's got some jokes too.

Here's the new BCS Standings: Click Here
The top ten is: 1. LSU 2. Alabama 3. Oklahoma 4. Oklahoma State 5. Boise State 6. Wisconsin 7. Clemson 8. Stanford 9. Arkansas 10. Oregon.

To me, the right teams are in the top ten, just not in the correct order.

Of course, everyone's already talking about the de fact "Plus One Playoff" we have waiting to happen with LSU, Alabama, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State being the top four. LSU and Alabama play each other on Nov. 5 and Oklahoma and Oklahoma State will meet in Bedlam. The winners will end up meeting for the national championship game. In other words, what a boring year in the BCS and people are going to say once again the BCS works.

Does the BCS really work? Not a chance. Oklahoma State is no where near the No. 4 team in the nation. Boise State and Wisconsin will go undefeated (and we could have Stanford and Clemson undefeated too) and they're all better than Oklahoma State. So why does Oklahoma State get to participate in this "de facto Playoff."

It's also worth noting that Wisconsin is ranked No. 6 behind Boise State but expect that to change in the next two weeks. Boise State's schedule is light the rest of the way and so is Wisconsin's but they do have two ranked opponents, Michigan State and Penn State, left to boost their resume and strength and schedule.

Either way, Boise State can go 12-0 and be left out of the national championship game. If the computers don't do it, the human voters will because they've been dropping Boise State every week. Seriously, Boise State beats Colorado State 63-13 and sets a school record in total yards and drops in the rankings. If that was Oklahoma (the BCS's darling), they would've jumped 25 spots to No. 1.

Outside of the BCS Top Ten is Kansas State at No. 11. Yes, Kansas State. Yes, what a joke. K-State's average computer ranking is No. 7. Their highest is No. 6 and lowest is No. 10. Are you kidding me? I can't wait until Kansas State plays Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas A&M and gets blown out by 40 points.

For the most part, the rest of the BCS Standings look pretty good, Nos. 12-25. But that part always looks good, right? Because the rest of the BCS outside the top 15 doesn't really matter. Exactly.

Some slight surprises are Houston at No. 19 (got a lot of help from the computers with a No. 11 ranking), Penn State at No. 21 (thanks to strength of schedule and not losing to Iowa) and Texas in at No. 24 despite losing two straight and being dropped in the human polls.
Of those three teams only Texas is a legitimate Top 25 team. (Yes, I'm a die-hard Texas fan. Yes, I kind of like Houston too. Yes, I go to Penn State. All three of these facts are irrelevant.)

Moving forward, LSU and Alabama are only separated by .0003 percent for the No. 1 or No. 2 spot. Again, it doesn't matter who's No. 1 or No. 2 since they'll play each other and settle it on the field, but that's interesting that Alabama gets the edge in the computers over LSU despite the schedule that LSU has played.

After Oklahoma at No. 3 comes the big dropoff. Oklahoma has .9301% BCS average while Oklahoma State at No. 4 is at .8568. That's a .0796 difference. And like I said, Oklahoma State should not be No. 4.

We could talk BCS all day, but we're not since it's been a long day already.
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This past weekend was costly for a lot of teams. Michigan, Georgia Tech and Illinois were all eliminated from the undefeated pool while South Carolina got by Mississippi State but not without the expense of its star running back Marcus Lattimore who is now out for the season with a torn knee ligament. Oregon suffered injuries for the second straight week. Last week is star running back LaMichael James and this time it was quarterback Darron Thomas.
For those returning from injury, Clemson's Tajh Boyd looked pretty darn good, especially in the second half, in that huge comeback to beat Maryland.
Clemson true freshman receiver Sammy Watkins set the school record with 345 all-purpose yards and had two huge touchdown catches in the third quarter and the 89-yard kick return score that put Clemson ahead for good in the 56-45 win. Just give Watkins the National Freshman of the Year award right now. Every week, he gets better and better.
But as you see, Maryland scored 45 against Clemson. All year I've talked about how bad Clemson's defense is until last week. Last week I talked about how Clemson's defense is gelling and it's pretty good now. I guess I spoke too soon. But what Maryland did was a lot of zone-read option with CJ Brown at quarterback and gashed Clemson in the running game, which is actually the strength of Clemson's defense. The Tigers defensive line was just too aggressive and that can be easily fixed in the future against a zone-read. The Tigers aren't ready to stop dreaming about being undefeated yet.

Speaking of undefeated, Kansas State is still undefeated. How does that happen? They've beaten Baylor, Missouri and Texas Tech. And scored a lot of points in those games too. Collin Klein used to be the laughing stock of the Big 12 as a wanna-be quarterback but now he is playing really really well, but at some point Kansas State has to lose right? Ranked No. 11 in the BCS is ridiculous. I'm not sold on K-State just yet despite how great of a coach Bill Snyder is.

Others I'm not completely sold on yet: Oklahoma State. Texas moved the ball all too well against the Pokes. Oklahoma State's offense will help win a lot of games but when it comes down to facing the better offenses, Oklahoma State's defense needs to step it up. Oh hey, what a coincidence, they play a better offense this week: Missouri. On the road. Missouri just crushed Iowa State 52-17 in a statement game with quarterback James Franklin (while Vanderbilt's coach James Franklin almost fought Georgia coach Mark Richt) had 373 total yards and five total touchdowns. Columbia, Missouri is where the Tigers knocked off then-No. 1 Oklahoma the week after the BCS Standings came out last year. Can Missouri do it to Oklahoma State this year?

Also looking ahead on the schedule is LSU hosting No. 20 Auburn Saturday and Alabama hosting Tennessee. This is the last game for both teams before they collide with each other on Nov. 5 as they'll both get bye weeks.

Getting bye weeks at the right time this week are Florida and South Carolina. Carolina needs to figure out how to replace Marcus Lattimore's production while Florida just lost its third straight as the big rivalry against Georgia up next where they hope the extra week off will get John Brantley back on the field.

And one last thing before we get to my new rankings, how bad was the Big East this week? I'm glad I didn't watch any of these games.
Pittsburgh got manhandled by Utah, the same Utah team whose coach said his team wasn't physical enough or big enough. I guess that means Pittsburgh isn't either.
Cincinnati and Louisville played maybe the ugliest Big East game so far this year. Cincy lost a lot of style points.
Rutgers survived by one point against Navy.
And well, South Florida lost...to....UConn. UConn scored 10 points off four South Florida turnovers to win 16-10 but here is UConn's last 5 drives in the second half and I remind you that they won: Fumble Return for Touchdown. Punt. Punt. Punt. Punt. Yeah, that sounds about right.

So here's My New College Football Top 25.
And I warn you, it doesn't look like the BCS Standings.
Last week's rankings
My Method: Record/Resume, Eye Test, if they played today who would win.
1. LSU (1) - beat Tennessee 38-7; Next vs. Auburn
2. Alabama (2) - beat Ole Miss 52-7; Next: vs. Tennessee
3. Oklahoma (3) - beat Kansas 47-17; Next: vs. Texas Tech
4. Boise State (4) - beat Colorado State 63-13; Next: vs. Air Force
5. Wisconsin (6) - beat Indiana 59-7; Next: at Michigan State
6. Oklahoma State (7) - Texas 38-26; Next: at Missouri
7. Stanford (5) - beat Washington State 44-14; Next: vs. Washington
8. Clemson (10) - beat Maryland 56-45; Next: vs. North Carolina
9. Oregon (8) - beat Arizona State 41-27; Next: at Colorado
10. Arkansas (9) - off week; Next: at Ole Miss
11. West Virginia (11) - off week: Next: at Syracuse (Friday, Oct. 21)
12. Nebraska (13) - off week; Next: at Minnesota
13. Virginia Tech (14) - beat Wake Forest 38-17; Next vs. Boston College
14. South Carolina (15) - beat Mississippi State 14-12; Next: at Tennessee (Oct. 29)
15. Michigan State (21) - beat Michigan 28-14; Next: vs. Wisconsin
16. Texas A&M (19) - beat Baylor 55-28; Next: at Iowa State
17. Notre Dame (20) - off week: Next: vs. USC
18. Kansas State (22) - beat Texas Tech 41-34; Next: at Kansas
19. Michigan (12) - lost to Michigan State; Next: vs. Purdue (Oct. 29)
20. Auburn (NR) - beat Florida 14-6; Next: at LSU
21. Georgia (NR) - beat Vanderbilt 33-28; Next: vs. Florida (Oct. 29)
22. Arizona State (17) - lost to Oregon; Next: vs. Colorado (Oct. 29)
23. Washington (25) - beat Colorado 52-24; Next: at Stanford
24. Georgia Tech (18) - lost to Virginia; Next: at Miami
25. Texas (24) - lost to Oklahoma State; Next: vs. Kansas (Oct. 29)
Out: Illinois (16), Baylor (23)
Bubble: Illinois, Houston, USC, SMU, Penn State, Rutgers, Florida State, Cincinnati, Toledo

Comments
-Texas still a top 25 team after giving Oklahoma State a good challenge and holding them under 300 yards passing.
-Penn State needs some wins over Northwestern and Illinois to crack the Top 25
-Houston is a few ranked teams losing away from cracking the Top 25
-Auburn is back into the rankings. They're up and down but getting better.
-West Virginia at No. 11 is the Big Eats's only hope of staying relevant
-Georgia Tech's improvements on defense keeps them in the top 25 although I always say they're overrated
-Stanford's resume not as strong as Oklahoma State/Wisconsin. They haven't played anybody.

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