Friday, November 4, 2011

Top 25 after Week 4

September 25, 2011

It's almost time for the rankings to start mattering as most teams head into conference play. The top six is pretty much solid, it's the rest of the top ten that is hard to figure out. There might be a surprise top ten team in my rankings and that team might be top ten in the future or maybe I have them ranked way too high but right now I don't see a better team than then for that spot in the rankings. Of course, that's why the rankings aren't so important right now until we let the season play out a little more but for now, I have room for them in the top ten. Next week, this team has a huge game that will certainly drop them out of the top ten and put them back into reality's perspective or vault them higher up. Find out who below.

My College Football Top 25
Last Week's Top 25
1. LSU (1) - beat West Virginia 47-21; Next: vs. Kentucky
2. Alabama (2) - beat Arkansas 38-14; Next: at Florida
3. Oklahoma (3) - beat Missouri 38-28; Next: vs. Ball State
4. Boise State (4) - beat Tulsa 41-21; Next: vs. Nevada
5. Wisconsin (5) - beat South Dakota 59-10; Next: vs. Nebraska
6. Stanford (6) - had a bye; Next: vs. UCLA
7. Oklahoma State (8) - beat Texas A&M 30-29; Next: vs. Kansas (Oct. 8)
8. Oregon (10) - beat Arizona 56-31; Next: vs. California (Oct. 6)
9. Florida (13) - beat Kentucky 48-10; Next: vs. Alabama
10. South Carolina (12) - beat Vanderbilt 21-3; Next: vs. Auburn
11. Nebraska (14) - beat Wyoming 38-14; Next: at Wisconsin
12. Virginia Tech (15) - beat Marshall 30-10; Next: vs. Clemson
13.Texas A&M (7) - lost to Oklahoma State; Next: vs. Arkansas
14. Arkansas (11) - lost to Alabama; Next: vs. Texas A&M
15. South Florida (17) - beat UTEP 52-24; Next: at Pittsburgh
16. Clemson (20) - beat Florida State 35-30; Next: at Virginia Tech
17. Florida State (9) - lost to Clemson; Next: at Wake Forest (Oct. 8)
18. Texas (18) - had a bye week; Next: at Iowa State
19. Baylor (21) - beat Rice 56-31; Next: at Kansas State
20. Arizona State (24) - beat USC 43-22; Next: vs. Oregon State
21. TCU (22) - beat Portland State 55-13; Next: vs. SMU
22. West Virginia (16) - lost to LSU; Next: vs. Bowling Green
23. Michigan State (NR) - beat Central Michigan 45-7; Next: at Ohio State
24. Ohio State (NR) - beat Colorado 37-17; Next: vs. Michigan State
25. Michigan (NR) - beat San Diego State 28-7; Next: vs. Minnesota
Dropped: USC, Illinois, North Carolina
Bubble: Illinois, Utah, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Houston, Cincinnati, North Carolina, Missouri

Notes: 
South Florida may be too high at No. 15. I still think West Virginia is the favorite in the Big East and better than the Bulls.
Florida State did not have EJ Manuel at quarterback, Greg Reid at corner and lost Brandon Jenkins in the first half against Clemson. It could have been a different game and Florida State could be the better team but Clemson has more offensive playmakers and a more balanced offense. Florida State needs Manuel to be good and healthy and is still searching for a running game.
Baylor is a team I'm waiting to stumble somewhere. I know the Bears have Robert Griffin and Kendal Wright but I can't picture them being anything more than a Top 25 team.
For those who didn't bother to watch Boise State or turned it off at halftime, remember the Broncos were up 34-0 and then Tulsa scored those meaningless points when Boise State was deep in the depth chart with the game in hand. Don't judge the Broncos by the final score and boxscore which is what is done too many times with a lot of teams.

Why the Changes?
Florida into the top ten ahead of South Carolina
All the Florida Gators have done this season in year one under Will Muschamp is win impressively, including the last two in SEC play over Tennessee and Kentucky. The Gators played a complete game every time they stepped onto the field and the top five ranked teams are the only other teams that I can say that about. South Carolina has found ways to win but has been shaky and John Brantley is clearly better than Stephen Garcia right now. South Carolina might be losing its edge in the SEC East as Florida emerges.
Arkansas stumbles but doesn't fall
It looked like a rout that Alabama had over Arkansas but until the end it really wasn't. Yes, Arkansas's offenisve line could do nothing against Alabama's defense and Tyler Wilson got beat up but Alabama scored three non-offensive touchdowns. If you take those out of the equation, it's only a 17-14 win. Arkansas hung around and they're still much better than some of the teams that will be ranked ahead of them but for now stumbling a few spots down to 14 is very reasonable for the Razorbacks rather than falling five or six spots.
Illinois out despite winning
Illinois is off to their best start since 1951 by being 4-0 right now but they've played Arkansas State, South Dakota State and now Western Michigan. The Illini had a good three-point win over Arizona State last week but the Sun Devils beat themselves rather than Illinois winning and this week the Illini struggled to get by Western Michigan.
The Newbies
Michigan State and Ohio State are both back into the Top 25 after falling out last week and ironically now they play each other this week so one of them will have a very short stay in the rankings. Michigan State has more weapons on offense and the better defense but Ohio State should be coming around pretty soon now that Braxton Miller has been given the keys to the offense full-time. Both are top 25 teams, and could move much higher as the season progresses. It's good for college football to have them back.
Michigan is the team I left out in favor of Illinois last week because of the gap between the defenses of Illinois and Michigan. I don't like to rank teams with miserable defenses like Michigan has but the Wolverines are 4-0 and have beat Notre Dame and held San Diego State to just seven points. That's a much more impressive resume than any other under-the-radar undefeated team right now.

Who's Too High?
You could say Florida while I say Nebraska. I'm not sure Nebraska is a good football team at all. The defense has been exposed at times and there's no passing game in the offense. Taylor Martinez is an improved quarterback but he doesn't have consistent weapons to throw to. Nebraska will ride its running game as long as it can and hope the defense wins them games, but soon they will falter and it could be this week in Wisconsin.

Who's Too Low?
This has to be Michigan State which returns more than half its starters on both sides of the ball from last year's team that went 11-2. It's duly noted that the only good opponent Michigan State faced in Notre Dame, they were dominated but the Spartans have so many weapons and just need the running game to get established like it was last season and Kirk Cousins is going through a funk right now that he's bound to get out of eventually, soon infact and they're going to need that against Ohio State this weekend.

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